Intensifying Rhetorical Battle Between Ethiopia and Eritrean Government Triggers Anxieties of Military Confrontation

Increasing worries are present over the chance of military engagement among Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as confrontational discourse has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for passage to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has triggered a fierce war of words.

The Ethiopian leader first openly declared in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrea rejected.

Relations between the both governments have regularly been difficult. After a prolonged battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) sea border, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a military clash broke out in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and military leader the army commander have directly stated ownership of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and implied the intention to seize it militarily.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Statements

Amid continuous warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been limited to short statements on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for sea access describing it as "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a policy of retaking previous domains.

Government spokespeople alerted on 16 September that efforts to justify "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Ground

Currently, there are no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nonetheless, in the country, national TV has displayed completion events of many recruits at various military training camps.

The head of human resources department of the armed forces, General Hachalu, commented lately in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Past Roots of the Tension

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was governed by Italian rulers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the UK forces before evolving into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

However in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this arrangement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year armed struggle ensued, ending with the government's loss in 1991. Sovereignty was then endorsed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their common border, causing hostilities in 1998.

Although this ended in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries continued at odds.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two endorsed a statement that the war was over – a decision that gained Abiy the prestigious award.

The two governments were then allies in Ethiopia's recent civil war in Tigray.

Yet diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated anew.