Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
